Trivandrum: In a press release issued by the Indian Meteorological Department, the monsoon rainfall for August – September is forecasted to be 90% of the LPA (Long Period Average). For the monsoon to be termed  normal, the amount of rainfall received should be atleast 94% of LPA. The country as a whole is being told to expect the situation of a partial drought this year.

The cause for the drought is blamed on the phenomenon of 'El Nino', a natural feature which is still to be completely studied. Every five years, there is a rise in the temperature of the Eastern Pacific Ocean, resulting in the increase in the surface pressure over the Western Pacific. El Nino has been the reason for extreme weather conditions like droughts and floods all over the world. One of the primary signs for predicting El Nino is the rise in surface pressure over the Indian Ocean, as is the case this year.

The rise in surface pressure affects the flow of monsoon winds, and in turn affects the rainfall received in most places of the Indian sub-continent.