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According to the Indian Meteorological Department, there hasn’t been any significant change in climatic conditions over the years, except for an increase in the frequency of ‘extreme events’ | By Mukesh Venu
On Jan 24, 2012

 

 

 

While the changing weather, diminishing rainfall and soaring temperatures always make it into the news on an annual basis, the fear of an imminent natural calamity such as a drought or heat wave looms large over the entire population all through the year. It has become habitual for elders to share memories of the past when the weather used to be much more ‘greener and milder’. But according to K Santhosh, Director of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), statistics have failed to show any considerable variation with the climatic conditions over the years.
 

“There has been a rise of 0.56 degree Celsius in annual mean temperature of India from 1901 – 2009. As for Kerala, there has been an increase in the ‘mean maximum’ temperature from 31.2 – 32 degree Celsius from 1961 – 2009, which is an increase of 0.8. The ‘mean minimum’ temperature showed an increase of 0.3 degree Celsius, from 23.3 – 23.6. When it comes to the ‘mean average’ temperature there has been an increase of 0.6 degree Celsius, from 27.2 – 27.8 degree Celsius,” explains Director K Santhosh.


This increase in the mean temperatures, which the Director referred to as 'not of a significant value', is often associated with decreasing amount of rainfall for the state, especially during the months between June - September.


“The South West monsoon, which lasts for a period of four months between June and September, has shown a decrease from 214 to 204 cm in its precipitation rate. But the 10cm decrease however isn't much of a variance considering the time period selected for the study,” K Santhosh points out.


Even though there has been a variation of 10cm in the total amount of rainfall obtained in the state during the South West monsoon for over a period of forty five years, what's lacking during the South West monsoon is usually compensated with the receding North East monsoon between October - December. So, in general there hasn't been any significant change in the total amount of rainfall received on an annual basis.   

However, even though the mean values remain the same, occasional turbulence in weather conditions like unseasonal rainfalls and unnatural heat waves have shown a rise during recent years. The phenomenon of global warming is very real and it is affecting climatic conditions worldwide, says K Santhosh.
 
“According to a report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the frequency of extreme weather events is likely to increase due to global warming and its subsequent variability.”

Yet it has to be remembered that there is always an ‘inherent variability within the system’; so a sudden change in the weather on a particular day can’t be termed as a global variation in weather conditions. In other words, a variation in the local parameters does not pose much of an influence over the global parameters. The significance of this point comes into perspective when considering the supposedly steep rise in temperatures in city areas during the summer months of March – May. Trivandrum had recorded its highest temperature of 38 degree Celsius in the year 2007.
 
“The increase of concrete structures, the road tar, mechanical devices like air-conditioning - everything accounts for a rise in the local temperatures. Concrete structures and road tar reflect heat and the dwindling number of trees from the city streets magnify the impact many times. So in effect, a person standing exposed to the heat on the street during a hot summer day would feel like he were standing inside a hot oven. Many people come here to know about the temperature of a day that feels particularly hot, fully expecting it to breach record values. But our measurements always show a temperature that would be only normal for a hot summer day. The immense heat felt in the streets due to the heat reflected from the concrete and tar does not in any way mean that there has been a change in the general climatic conditions.”
 
The pattern of the rainfall is yet another thing that’s supposed to have undergone dramatic variations over the years. But K Santhosh states that it is just a mistake made in perception.
 

 

 

“The South West monsoon which happens during the months of June – September is characterized by carpet like cloud formations which are large and continuous. Typically, during the South West monsoon, there would be a period extending for seven to ten days followed y a lull of four to five days. But during the North East monsoon, or receding monsoon season, between the months of October- December, the cloud formation is essentially ‘cumulonimbus’ which is a locally developing cloud formation which would cover an area of only about 10 sq km and last for a maximum of 2-3 hours. That accounts for the localized showers which cover one particular area within the city while the surrounding area is dry.”
 
In conclusion it could be said the climatic conditions prevailing over the subcontinent has not undergone any significant variation to cause any alarm. But threat still persists in the form of increasing frequency of extreme weather conditions which is caused by global warming, something which no single nation can do anything about individually and which requires a global collective effort to begin with.

 
 
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